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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It often serves as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic turnaround receives the award. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or just the most shocking shock.

But the latest field is profoundly different. The list of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime also-rans improving together. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this wild and fun season, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, he bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still